The US dollar rose to a fresh 2-month high after a shambolic showing from US President Biden in the first Presidential debate. Once gain Biden’s frailty was exposed, often stumbling over his words, and at one stage completely losing his train of thought. Trump performed well, and the $ rallied as he doubled down on imposing trade tariffs, saying this will decrease the trade deficit and will not increase inflation. Elsewhere US and EU macro data came in pretty much in line with expectations, will all eyes now firmly on today’s Core PCE numbers (Fed’s preferred measure of inflation).
*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 28.06.24
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 28.06.24
Given the recent exceptionally low volatility across major currencies, today’s US inflation data has gained in significance, so we expect outsized FX moves were the numbers to come in out of line with forecasts. Elsewhere politics could well become a major catalyst for markets, with the upcoming first round of French Election voting due Sunday, and the UK election slated for next Thursday.
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