The EUR took the headlines yesterday morning, starting the day stronger after France’s first round of elections showed that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party failed get as much of a majority as initially expected. But by the afternoon, it was another politician who took the headlines, after the US Supreme Court ruled that Donald Trump has some immunity from trying to reverse the 2020 election result. USD gained across the board as a result, erasing the morning's losses. The weaker-than-expected manufacturing PMI numbers were ignored by markets.
*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 02.07.24
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 02.07.24
Inflation numbers from the Eurozone in focus, where markets are expecting CPI to drop in the month of May. Markets are currently pricing in the possibility of two further rate cuts this year, barring any major surprises on inflation. For the EUR, the uncertainty surrounding the second round election on Sunday could bar any further gains for the currency. USD focus fall on the JOLTS job openings numbers at 3pm, as well as Fed Chair Powell participating in a panel in Sintra, Portugal. For now, USD gains seem to be linked with the heightened possibility of Donald trumping Biden as the next President.
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