USD declined for a third straight day versus G-10 peers, following a disappointing set of retail sales numbers in December. The USD Spot Index slipped 0.1%, down 1.1% over three days, while Treasury yields fell across the curve.
USDJPY fell almost 1% to 154.36, down more than 1.8% over two days, after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed PM Takaichi will not extend the sales tax cut for food.
GBP’s political recovery stalled yesterday as we wait for GDP numbers on Thursday.
*Daily move - against G10 rates as of 17:00 GMT, 10.02.26
** Indicative rates - interbank rates as of 17:00 GMT, 10.02.26
The market remains focused on USD risk as investors await January payrolls, hourly earnings, and the unemployment rate. Expectations for a soft print are keeping yields and the dollar subdued. Markets are likely to react quickly to any surprises in NFP or wage growth. A weaker print would weigh on USD and Treasury yields, potentially giving G-10 peers – particularly EUR and JPY – a near-term lift, while a stronger outcome could reset expectations for the Fed’s next move.
Events over the past week continue to leave GBP fragile. Last week’s dovish-hold by the BoE eased some rate support, while political uncertainty persists. PM Starmer’s cabinet backing has helped GBP recover, but investigations, PMQs, and the Feb 26 by-election, keep headline risks elevated, with succession speculation unlikely to fade soon.
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