GBP remains under pressure as GDP came out in line with the market’s expectations at 0.0%. Production figures out from across the UK contributed to the narrative that the economy is slowing, with the industrial and manufacturing production figures contracting.
USD remained on the back foot at the end of last week, as consumer sentiment data fell short of the market’s expectations. Combined with signals from a cooling labour market, these developments have further strengthened expectations that the Fed may begin easing interest rates.
Over in Europe, the euro has maintained its stability following the ECB’s decision to keep rates unchanged and a broadly resilient economic outlook—showing strength even amid ongoing political uncertainty in France.
*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:00 am, 15.09.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:00 am, 15.09.25
Markets open the week on a quiet note, with no significant data releases expected to drive volatility today. Attention quickly shifts to the upcoming central bank meetings in Canada, the US, the UK, and Japan, where key interest rate decisions are set to shape the week ahead. Both Fed and Bank of Canada are expected to cut interest rates by 0.25%.
The interest rate decisions are taking place in a week where Trump is visiting the UK and the UK government is in a precarious position, on the backdrop of Mandelson being sacked as the UK’s ambassador to the US. GBP/USD is currently testing the resistance level, sitting on the highs last seen at the start of July.
Average earnings and CPI data is out from the UK on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. CPI is out from Canada on Tuesday, alongside retail sales out from the US.
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