See our guide to the key FX dates in July 2024 to be aware of when making cross-border payments.
USD was broadly stronger yesterday despite data showing that there was a higher number of people filing for jobless claims than expected – another signal of a weakening job market. However, the gains in USD could be attributed to reports suggesting Joe Biden will exit the presidential race this weekend and the resultant market certainty. It is worth noting that in a recent Bloomberg interview both Donald Trump and his vice-president pick JD Vance called for a weaker dollar, so any change in the leadership race could shake things up.
As widely expected, the ECB did not change interest rates but did cast further doubt on the possibility of two additional rate cuts this year. However, this hasn’t changed market expectations and therefore limited impact on EUR.
*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 19.07.24
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 19.07.24
In the absence of any major data points today, it seems likely we will continue to see USD making gains from yesterday as markets continue to reevaluate the political narrative Stateside. GBP’s bubble may have also burst in the short term, particularly given we didn’t see higher inflation or wage numbers this week. This morning's lower-than-forecasted retail sales numbers are also having a negative impact on GBP this morning.
Looking ahead to next week, we have PMI numbers from the UK, US and EU, as well as Q2 GDP numbers and core PCE inflation numbers from the US.
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