USD losses continued yesterday after disappointing data from the US. ADP payrolls came in at 150,000, lower than the 165,000 expected, and in an even bigger shock we saw ISM service PMIs flip into contraction territory, falling to 48.8 versus the 52.6 expectation. Both GBPUSD and EURUSD are now trading at the highest levels since 13th June. Later in the afternoon, the New York Times reported that President Biden has told an ally that he is weighing up whether he wants to continue in the presidential race. Reports are also suggesting that should Biden step away, then Kamala Harris is the most likely to take his place.
Last night's Fed minutes failed to disclose anything that we didn’t know before, with Fed officials wanting more evidence inflation is dropping before taking any action.
The latest Harris Poll in France suggests that the National Rally and its allies would get 190-220 seats in the second round of elections, falling short of the 289 needed for an absolute majority – once again, minimal impact on the EUR.
*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 04.07.24
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 04.07.24
Election day for the UK, and the final YouGov poll suggests a landslide victory for Labour resulting in 431 seats, 102 for the Conservatives, 72 for the Liberal Democrats, 3 for Reform UK and 2 for the Green party. Markets will get their first gauge of results around 10pm with the release of the exit polls, and should that also confirm a majority then GBP should be supported, but worth noting this has been largely priced in. The risk for GBP would be if Labour failed to secure a majority – like what we saw in 2017 when Theresa May failed in doing so.
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