So there you have it - Labour is on course for a 170 seat majority to topple the Conservative party in the General Election. Market reaction, as expected, is minor, with GBP supported and holding onto prior day gains. Markets in general were quiet yesterday, with the US closed 4th July celebrations.
*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 05.07.24
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 05.07.24
With UK elections over, attention now turns to US jobs data today, as well the second round of voting in the French election over the weekend. Following on from Fed Powell's comments earlier this week, these numbers will be even move scrutinised in determining when the Fed will cut interest rates. As we can see above, there is an expectation of some slightly softer numbers which could well lead to higher odds of a September rate cut, and could well see GBPUSD have another go this year's highs.
Polling projections in France continue to show Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and its allies will fail to get an absolute majority this weekend. EUR seems to be supported on this notion so far, but nonetheless for GBPEUR and EURUSD remains a big risk event over the weekend.
Back to the UK and GBP, focus now falls back to data and when the Bank of England will cut interest rates. Odds of a 0.25% rate cut in August sits at 65%, with the next major data point out on the 17th July being the June CPI print.
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