See our guide to the key FX dates in July 2024 to be aware of when making cross-border payments.
Events over the weekend have seen USD gain marginally, following another sell-off on the greenback on Friday, which saw GBPUSD hit the highest level for 12 months. GBP in general had a solid day, with GBPEUR hitting near 2-year highs.
*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 15.07.24
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 15.07.24
The weekend's events will likely firm up the odds of Trump getting re-elected in the US elections later this year, and on that basis we will likely see USD hold early gains. However, worth noting, markets have already largely priced in a Trump win, hence why the limited gains on the greenback so far.
So, attentions during the week will likely fall back onto fundamentals, with USD to be driven by tomorrow's retail sales numbers, as well as Fed Chair Powell's speech later today. This weeks main focus will fall on GBP and the release of CPI numbers on Wednesday, and job numbers on Thursday. Market momentum continues to favour GBP, especially following the hawkish comments made by Chief Economist Huw Pill, so unless we see a steeper-than-expected decline on CPI (particularly services CPI) and on wages. Final CPI numbers are also due from Europe on Wednesday for the month of June, and then on Thursday we have the ECB rate decision, but no change is expected & we will be focusing on whether Christine Lagarde hints at a cut in September.
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