PMI numbers from the US surprised to the upside in May, accelerating to the highest levels since April 2022, causing markets to scale back when they expect the Fed to cut interest rates this year, resulting in a stronger USD across the board. UK numbers disappointed coming in lower-than-expected, and the EUR was disappointed on two fronts, (i) Higher PMI numbers, (ii) Higher Q1 wage growth numbers. GBPEUR drifted lower from near-2024 highs as a result.
*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 24.05.24
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 24.05.24
Conversations across the client base continue to focus on the impact of the upcoming election on GBP, and so far there isn’t much to comment on given the muted market reaction. Labour are clear leaders in the opinion poll, and both frontrunners (so far) are not promising any radical changes in fiscal policy. It's early doors still and things will likely change in the build up, but for now GBP moves will likely be dictated by interest rate projections and economic performance.
This morning's UK retail sales were disappointing, showing a 3% drop in sales year-on-year in April and March’s numbers were revised lower as well – initial GBP losses have eased off. USD gains are continuing this morning following yesterday’s PMI numbers, and ahead of today's University of Michigan numbers this afternoon.
Our team of currency experts are here to help you get more from your money when making global transfers. We will work with you to understand your payment needs and offer specialised guidance on the best options available to you. Over the last 19 years we’ve helped over a million customers and last year alone processed over £12bn. We’re tried and trusted, and we’re ready to help you.
Have a great day.
