Currency news

ECB interest rate meeting in focus

Chief Market Strategist at Equals Money
-
3
min read
Published:
October 17, 2024
    • GBP: Weak inflation data hits sterling
    • EUR: Interest rate cut expected
    • USD: 2-month highs


    Yesterday's currency recap

    GBP fell across the board during yesterday's trading session after a weaker than projected inflation data report reinforced the case for an interest rate cut at the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting in November. Prices rose at the slowest pace since April 2021, prompting markets to quickly price in a further 0.25% rate cut in December.

    Elsewhere the broad USD rally continued as global economic slowdown fears deepened.

    The euro fell sharply to a fresh 2-month low versus USD ahead of today's European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate meeting where rates are forecast to be cut by another 0.25%.

    Today's GBP rates

    Currency pair Daily move* Indicative rate**
    GBPAUD 0.07% 1.9516
    GBPCAD 0.00% 1.8006
    GBPCHF 0.05% 1.1275
    GBPDKK 0.03% 8.9550
    GBPEUR 0.02% 1.2005
    GBPJPY 0.09% 195.2500
    GBPNOK -0.03% 14.1450
    GBPNZD 0.32% 2.1565
    GBPSEK -0.01% 13.6110
    GBPUSD -0.02% 1.3072


    *Daily move - against
    G10 rates at 7:30am, 17.10.24

    ** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 17.10.24

    Key data points

    Currency Event Period Consensus Previous
    EUR ECB Main Refinancing Rate Oct 3.40% 3.65%
    USD Retail Sales Sep 0.30% 0.1 %
    USD Industrial Production Sep -0.20% 0.80%

    Upcoming speeches

    What we think

    Later today, we will get the latest read on the health of the US consumer in the form of the US retail sales report where markets expect modest growth. This lies in stark contrast to the UK consumer, where data slated for tomorrow is expected to show the volume of sales has declined.

    Looking ahead, with so much noise starting to surround the upcoming US elections, UK budget, China slowdown, and geopolitical angst, markets will have a lot to contend with.

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