Currency news

JPY soars on hot inflation

Head of FX Analysis at Equals Money
-
3
min read
Published:
November 29, 2024
  • Markets raise odds of a BoJ rate hike
  • EU CPI numbers will indicate what the ECB does next


Yesterday's currency recap

The EUR took a hit in the afternoon after European Central Bank (ECB) member Villeroy stated that he wouldn't rule out going below the neutral rate in the future. He went on to say that ''optionality should remain open on the size of a cut'' in December.

Germany's CPI showed an upward trend in November compared to last year, yet it didn't quite meet expectations.

Today's GBP rates

Currency pair Daily move* Indicative rate**
GBPAUD -0.03% 1.9511
GBPCAD -0.21% 1.7769
GBPCHF 0.18% 1.1202
GBPDKK 0.16% 8.9639
GBPEUR 0.16% 1.2020
GBPJPY 0.32% 192.2240
GBPNOK -0.04% 14.0226
GBPNZD 0.12% 2.1537
GBPSEK 0.20% 13.8616
GBPUSD 0.05% 1.2686


*Daily move - against
G10 rates at 7:30am, 29.11.24

** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 29.11.24

Key data points

Currency Event Period Consensus Previous
EUR ECB 1 Year CPI Expectations Oct 2.30% 2.40%
EUR ECB 3 Year CPI Expectations Oct 2.10% 2.10%
EUR CPI MoM Nov -0.20% 0.30%
EUR CPI YoY Nov 2.30% 2.00%
EUR Core CPI YoY Nov 2.80% 2.70%

What we think

JPY soared overnight after Japan’s inflation numbers came in hotter than expected, raising the odds of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) hiking rates in December.

The gains in JPY led to a sell-off in USD propelling GBPUSD to hit 2-week highs and EURUSD 1-week highs. However much of the gains on both currency pairs have eased off since.

For the rest of the day, Eurozone CPI numbers will be the highlight and likely determine whether the ECB will cut rates by 25bps or 50 bps on the 12th December. A hot CPI number will likely see EUR gain.

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