USD powered higher to hit a one-month high against the EUR, as markets continued to digest details from the US - EU trade deal. The move marked the biggest two-day drop for EURUSD in nearly three years, with the EUR continuing to be sold aggressively.
GBP wasn’t immune either - GBPUSD slid to a 10-week low, dragged lower by the stronger greenback and persistently weak macro signals. The latest data showed food inflation rose to a 17-month high, highlighting the spending pressures on UK households. Some USD gains were given back by the end of the day after JOLTS job openings came in lower than expected, prompting a narrative of a softening job market.
Read more about the JOLTS job openings here - When is the next JOLTS report?
*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:00 am, 30.07.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:00 am, 30.07.25
It’s all about the Fed. Consensus is for a hold, but markets are still pricing in a meaningful chance of cuts later this year. Powell’s language will be the swing factor - a hawkish tilt will likely see further USD gains, while a dovish nod risks a broad USD pullback, with EUR and GBP best placed to benefit. Before the main event in the evening, we have the ADP payroll print at 1.15pm and the Q2 GDP numbers at 1.30pm.
Out of Europe we have Q2 GDP numbers at 10.00am - expected to show growth dropping to 0.00% from 0.6% in Q1. Slower growth will likely add further pressure to the EUR ahead of the CPI numbers out on Friday.
Read more about the Fed interest rate decision here:
Our team of currency experts are here to help you get more from your money when making international payments. We will work with you to understand your payment needs and offer specialised guidance on the best options available to you. Over the last 19 years we’ve helped over a million customers and last year alone processed over £12bn. We’re tried and trusted, and we’re ready to help you.
Have a great day.
