A risk off approach filtered into markets yesterday as Trump reignited his threats of tariffs against Mexico, Canada, China and the EU which resulted in a stronger dollar.
We saw GBPUSD pull back from 2025 highs, however the news of these tariffs meant the biggest loser was EUR, with GBPEUR reaching new highs for the year. Starmer’s meeting with Trump could mean the UK enters into a trade deal avoiding the tariff threat.
*Daily move - against G10 rates at 7:30am, 28.02.25
** Indicative rates - interbank rates at 7:30am, 28.02.25
Turning to economic data, the US unemployment number was higher than both the forecast and previous figure, resulting at 242k and, with today’s Core PCE number scheduled for 13:30 UK time, this certainly has the ability to reverse yesterday’s dollar moves.
We may see some EUR positioning ahead of next week’s ECB meeting, with a cut in interest rates being fully priced in. Markets expect a 60% chance of a cut in April and only 26% of three cuts by end of June.
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